Seven things to look out for when Juncker announces the allocation of Commission portfolios

Juncker faces several challenges in distributing the portfolios, not least ensuring that all 28 commissioners have a meaningful job to do.

Jean-Claude Juncker, the next president of the European Commission, is to announce this week the allocation of portfolios among his nominated commissioners.

The announcement could come on Tuesday, but is more likely to come on Wednesday. So the time for compiling your own fantasy European Commission is over. Now you have to engage with Juncker’s version of reality. Here’s what to look out for.

Do all the women get good jobs, or just some of them?
It is a truth universally acknowledged that Juncker must give decent portfolios to at least some of the eight women that have been nominated to the college in addition to Federica Mogherini, the foreign policy chief. Partly that will be because they have a reputation for being talented individuals – the likes of Elżbieta Bieńkowska, Kristalina Georgieva, Cecilia Malmström and Margrethe Vestager. Partly it is because Juncker has to reward those member states that opted to nominate women as he struggled to reach nine women out of 28: Romania switched to Corina Creţu, the Czech Republic put forward Vĕra Jourová, Belgium eventually nominated Marianne Thyssen. Juncker has to decide whether to reward all women or to discriminate among them by, for example, ignoring the claims of Alenka Bratušek, ex-prime minister of Slovenia.

What goodies do the liberals get?
Juncker needs to secure the support of the liberal group in the European Parliament, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe. The centre-right European People’s Party, to which Juncker belongs, has already secured the presidency of the Commission and the presidency of the European Council (Donald Tusk). The centre-left Socialists and Democrats have secured the foreign policy job (Mogherini) and the presidency of the Parliament. So what do the liberals get? The allocation of portfolios is the obvious way to secure votes: the liberal nominees are Andrus Ansip of Estonia, Bratušek, Jourová, Malmström and Vestager.

Are any policy declarations made by allocation of portfolios?
For all that Juncker has made promises to the European Council and to the European Parliament, he still has some leeway to put his personal stamp on the future Commission’s policy- and law-making. The allocation of portfolios could give some clues. Does he give the portfolios that he does not favour to nominees that he does not rate? Does he abolish or merge departments? The lobbyists wondering about Juncker’s approach to climate change, or to EU enlargement, or to manufacturing industry will be reading much into his choice of commissioners, and his decisions to merge or abolish dossiers.

How would vice-presidents exert power over other commissioners?
The signs are that Juncker recognises that there are not enough meaningful portfolios to keep 28 commissioners occupied. The whispers are that commissioners will be organised into groups, each one overseen by a vice-president. A nice idea in theory, but how might it be made to work in practice? If a vice-president does not preside over a Commission department, how will he or she have more power than a commissioner who does have staff, funds, information? After Barroso’s failed attempt at creating clusters, Juncker has to make sure that any attempt at creating super-departments gets off to a smooth start.

What will be the relationship between Mogherini and other foreign affairs commissioners?
One vice-president who will have staff and a well marked-out policy area is Federica Mogherini, the next high representative for foreign and security policy. At the moment, the relationships between Catherine Ashton, the current high representative, and the other commissioners who have foreign policy portfolios – neighbourhood, development, humanitarian aid, trade – could hardly be described as smooth. The high representative, whilst she is a member of the Commission, is also head of a diplomatic corps – the European External Action Service – that is not part of the Commission, yet relies on the Commission for a large part of its money. So will Juncker make an attempt to re-shape the structure of the Commission to tie in Mogherini with the other commissioners?

Can you see Selmayr’s thumbprints?
Juncker appointed as head of his private office Martin Selmayr, who had previously worked for Viviane Reding, Luxembourg’s previous European commissioner, as spokesman and latterly as head of her private office. A German lawyer, he has a reputation for being clever but also sometimes too clever. He is hard-working and energetic, but also abrasive in a way that João Vale de Almeida, Barroso’s first chef de cabinet, was not. Romano Prodi’s first chef was David O’Sullivan, whose style is gentler. The myth-makers are already attributing Rasputin-like qualities to Selmayr, so they will be looking out for appointments that might carry Selmayr’s fingerprints. He worked with Reding on the digital agenda, when she was commissioner for telecoms. Latterly, she was commissioner with responsibility for justice, citizenship and communications. So how those dossiers are packaged should be double-checked.

Are any commitments made about Commission directors-general?

Scandalously, when José Manuel Barroso announced the distribution of portfolios for his second college of commissioners, he accompanied the announcement that Michel Barnier, France’s nominee, would be allocated the dossier of internal market and services with a promise that a Briton would become director-general of that department. In due course Jonathan Faull was transferred from the justice and home affairs department and the Swedish director-general was forced to make way. Barroso had been subjected to enormous pressure from Gordon Brown, then the United Kingdom’s prime minister, who feared what the British press might make of the appointment of a Frenchman with power over financial services. But it was a mistake to make the appointment of a commissioner contingent on that of a director-general. And no matter the pressure put on Juncker, it would be a mistake to repeat the error.

 

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