Up, up and away?

Europe’s aviation sector has seen phenomenal growth over the past two decades, but uncertainty about the future is plaguing the sector.

Aviation is, arguably, the transport sector most affected by European Union law – naturally enough, given its international dimension. From safety regulations to airport ownership, passenger rights to emissions reduction, aviation is in many ways beyond the scope of individual national governments.

Today the EU has one of the most competitive and dynamic air travel markets in the world – and also one of the cheapest. This is in large part because of the progressive waves of liberalisation in the sector begun in the 1990s. The EU hosts 253 commercial airlines landing at 402 EU airports with scheduled flights. The sector as a whole employs more than three million people in the EU and contributes more than €140 billion to EU gross domestic product, according to the European Commission.

But all is not straighforward for aviation in Europe. The sector could become a victim of its own success. According to Eurocontrol, a European umbrella organisation of national air traffic managers, by 2030 demand for air travel is forecast to be up to 2.9 times the level in 2007. Despite this expected growth, there are virtually no plans to expand EU airport infrastructure. Currently, there are only four new airports scheduled to open between now and 2030. Compare this with China, which is planning 78 new airports by 2020.

Europe’s airspace is also woefully unprepared for the boom. Despite plans put in place a decade ago to unite Europe’s fragmented airspace, the EU remains split into 27 separate authorities, obliging aircraft to follow bizarre, inefficient routes to avoid paying usage fees. Member states have fiercely resisted the directive that required them to combine their airspace.

Airlines have complained vociferously that the lack of forward thinking for both airspace and airports has left them in limbo. Today, out of the EU’s top 14 airports, only two have sufficient capacity to meet day-long demand. Emissions reduction is another area of serious uncertainty.

Nations committed themselves through the Kyoto Protocol to the idea of cutting aircraft emissions even in the face of projected growth in the 1990s, but so far no global solution has been agreed. The on-again-off-again regulation of emissions through the EU emissions trading scheme, now caught in intense diplomatic wrangling, has created confusion and uncertainty.

There are those who say that the growth of the aviation industry should be deplored rather than welcomed. Cheap flights and increasing emissions are bad news for the climate, say environmental campaigners, and the EU should instead be focusing on getting people out of planes and onto rail.

But the industry insists that new technologies and practices can counteract the increased emissions and noise inherent in air travel expansion. Along with the rest of the economy, the aviation sector experienced its share of trouble over the past few years. Passenger numbers were up 2.4% in 2012 – a positive signal for the industry.

However, with clouds of uncertainty involving air traffic, emissions restrictions and liberalisation, the sector finds itself with anything but clear skies ahead.

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