EU officials in Brussels expressed caution this week about condemning Poland over several moves by its new conservative government, as many feared a political backlash in the Union’s largest Eastern European member country.
Though some leaders have been vocal in criticizing the country’s recent crackdown on media and controversial changes to a constitutional court, diplomats saw little chance the EU would go so far as to impose sanctions on Poland under “Article 7” of the bloc’s treaty, which aims to protect human rights and the rule of law. Such an action, which has never been taken against an EU country, would suspend Poland’s voting rights in the European Council.
At this stage “the situation is worrying,” said an EU diplomat speaking under condition of anonymity, “but no one I spoke to has vented the intention to go that far.”
The Polish government has been under fire recently after the conservative and Euroskeptic Law and Justice party (PiS), which won elections in October, moved to put Polish public TV and radio broadcasters under direct government control and to reform the constitutional court in a way critics say threatens the country’s judicial independence.
Martin Schulz, the president of the European Parliament, described Poland’s recent actions as a “coup” and promised a debate on the issue in the assembly at its plenary this month.
The European Commission also responded quickly before Christmas, with First Vice President Frans Timmermans sending Warsaw two letters asking for a clarification of its recent initiatives. But diplomats said the inquiries went unanswered.
Last week, the Commission said Poland should be put under the EU’s rule of law supervision, a three-step procedure that could end up with the suspension of Poland’s voting rights within the 28-nation bloc.
Commission spokesman Margaritis Schinas told reporters the EU executive will hold a “political debate” on Poland in its meeting on January 13.
But many diplomats in Brussels argue that it is too early to draw any conclusions, and fear that too much interference in Poland’s internal politics could be counter-productive.
Germany, for example, has been reluctant to take a harsh tone against Poland because of economic as well as historical reasons, diplomats said. The German-Polish relationship has recovered since World War II to the stage where the two nations are significant economic partners.
German diplomats also say that the new Polish government has an “us against the world” attitude that could only get worse if the EU overreacts.
Other diplomats said they would wait for the Council to discuss the issue.
“There will be an analysis of the situation in the days to come by both the Commission and the Parliament,” said a European diplomat. “We are very attached to that analysis.”
An official from the Netherlands, the country now holding the presidency of the Council of Ministers, said they were monitoring the situation “very closely.”
“We support what the Commission is doing and it is important the letters are answered and that in the meantime we all stay objective,” the official said.
Activation of Article 7, to suspend a country from its EU voting rights “in case of a clear risk of a serious breach” of European values, is considered more of a threat than a real option.
Discussion, not sanctions
Diplomats said the measure is complicated to trigger both technically and politically, as it could reinforce in Warsaw the idea that there is a bias against Poland. They argue that there is still room for discussion with the new Polish government.
In addition, history has shown that there are other ways to put pressure on an EU country if it is considered not to be complying with “European values.”
In 2000, EU leaders, led by Former French President Jacques Chirac, imposed sanctions on Austria after Jorg Haider — the leader of a notoriously xenophobic party — joined the government.
The sanctions, which were lifted after seven months, consisted of a boycott of certain exchange programs and the reluctance of European cabinet ministers to meet with their Austrian counterparts. Its economic impact was limited, though many officials acknowledged at the time that they had succeeded only in angering the Austrians.
A decision to resort to Article 7 in the case of Poland is “premature,” Vivien Pertusot, a political analyst for the French think tank Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), said. “We would need to see whether it is a political posture or if Poland decides to do a political revolution.”
Poland’s sudden conservative push, Pertusot said, reminds many in Brussels of Hungary, which imposed controversial crackdowns on its justice and media systems in 2013 and 2014 (provoking similar calls for EU action, which did not come). But he said Hungary’s example was misleading as Poland “doesn’t have the same far-right forces.”
Pertusot said it was too early to draw any conclusions. “There is often a lack of understanding in Brussels about the political situation in Eastern Europe,” Pertusot said. “Poland, like other Eastern European countries, entered the EU … but it doesn’t mean that they have changed their identities. They are conservative as a way to reinforce their identities, including on migration issues.”
Diplomats also expressed hope that Polish President Andrzej Duda’s visit to Brussels on January 18 would be the first occasion to smooth tensions. Duda is expected to meet with European Council President Donald Tusk, a former Polish prime minister and a political rival.