COLUMBUS, OH — Ohio’s 12th district, which stretches and contours through towns and counties around Columbus, has been home to well-beaten pavement in recent months. That’s because Tuesday’s special election to replace Rep. Pat Tiberi has become surprisingly contentious, with Republican Troy Balderson facing a stiff challenge from Democrat Danny O’Connor.
With polls showing a virtual dead heat between the candidates, both national media and national political figures have been visiting the area looking to discern a shift in the wind in the traditionally Republican district. President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence have both been to the OH-12th in the past four weeks, and the Washington Post, New York Times and even Politico have done long looks at the district.
What’s so intriguing about the race? This is another special election, and therefore another chance for Democrats to prove voters are rejecting the politics of Donald Trump. It’s also a chance for Republicans to rebuke that notion and take another step toward securing control of Congress.
For O’Connor and Balderson, it’s just an issue of winning a single election — not serving as a highway marker for a possible future destination.
The Candidates
Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor has been knocking on doors, shaking hands and doing TV interviews for months, trying to craft the narrative around his politics.
He’s not a Nancy Pelosi guy (despite a recent gaffe), he’s not voting for universal healthcare and he doesn’t want to abolish ICE. In short, he’s a Democrat but he’s not interested in walking the path cut by rising star and New Yorker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who describes herself as a Democratic Socialist. Instead, it appears he’d like to tread the same ground that Rep. Conor Lamb used.
Lamb won his own special election this year in a traditionally red district — the Pennsylvania 18th. He secured his victory by taking a moderate Democratic stance on a variety of issues, and distancing himself from the politics of Donald Trump.
Regardless of who came before him, O’Connor is trying to climb a steep mountain. The OH-12th went for President Trump in 2016 by a margin of 11.4 points. Voters are used to voting red and O’Connor has to convince them to jump ship.
Still, polls show O’Connor and Balderson in a dead heat heading into the special election. Something is working in his favor.
Balderson — currently a state representative — seemed destined to take over for Tiberi in Congress before O’Connor emerged. The Republican candidate has managed the nearly impossible: he’s earned endorsements from both Trump and a vocal Trump opponent, Governor John Kasich. Both men, Kasich and Trump, have been throwing their weight into the race in an attempt to appeal to voters…but they’ve also started to play tug-of-war with Balderson’s allegiances.
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Kasich, this weekend, claimed that Balderson never invited the president to stump for him in the district. Balderson, for his part, quickly said he was “honored” to have Trump join him in the OH-12th, the Columbus Dispatch said.
Even while he continues to walk the tight rope between the two massive political figures, Balderson has been confronted with comments like this one from Kasich about Trump’s visit: “Suburban women in particular here are the ones that are really turned off. It’s really kind of shocking because this (special election) should be just a slam dunk and it’s not.”
Tuesday is the special election between O’Connor and Balderson. The two men have been wagering on different strategies to win over voters in the district, but which will pay off?
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