A new poll shows former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE has opened up a big lead over President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE in Pennsylvania, a Rust Belt battleground state that will play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the 2020 election.
A state-level survey by Quinnipiac University finds Biden at 53 percent and Trump at 42 percent in a head-to-head match-up in Pennsylvania.
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Trump has a narrow 4 point advantage among male respondents, but Biden holds a 24 point lead among women — 60 percent to 36 percent. Among white voters, Biden leads 49 percent to 45 percent, but he leads among nonwhite voters by a whopping 70 percent to 27 percent.
Trump and Biden pulled at least 90 percent support from within their own parties, while the former vice president held a 14 point advantage among independents, leading 51 percent to 37 percent.
“More than half of Pennsylvania voters say they are better off financially than they were in 2016,” said Mary Snow, the polling analyst for Quinnipiac University. “But the economy isn’t giving President Donald Trump an edge in an early read of the very key Keystone State.”
Trump edged out Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE in Pennsylvania by less than 1 point in 2016, making him the first GOP presidential nominee to carry the state since 1988.
Trump also won in two other traditionally blue states — Michigan and Wisconsin — that have made up the Democratic “blue wall” in the Rust Belt and Midwest.
Those three states will be a central focus for both parties in the 2020 general election. Biden, who is from Scranton, Pa., held his first campaign rally in Pennsylvania last month at a union hall.
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) also leads in a head-to-head matchup against Trump in Pennsylvania, 50 percent to 43 percent.
Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) held a smaller lead over the president, 47 percent to 44 percent. Sen. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisRand Paul introduces bill to end no-knock warrants The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook McEnany says Juneteenth is a very ‘meaningful’ day to Trump MORE (D-Calif.) and Trump split in their hypothetical head-to-head contest, at 45 percent each.
Trump is essentially running even with former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE (D).
Trump’s approval rating is deep underwater in Pennsylvania — 54 percent of respondents disapprove of him while 42 percent support him.
White voters are evenly divided over the job Trump has done, but nonwhite voters disapprove by a margin of 74 percent to 23 percent. A slim majority of men approve of Trump’s job performance while 62 percent of women disapprove.
Still, 54 percent of voters in the state say they’re better off financially than they were in 2016. Only 21 percent said they are worse off. Seventy-one percent of Pennsylvanians describe the economy as “excellent” or “good.”
The Quinnipiac University survey of 978 Pennsylvania voters was conducted May 9-14 and has a 4.2 percentage point margin of error.